1.Copper production at Peru's Las Bambas mine increased in Q1.

On Thursday, April 24, Peru's Las Bambas copper mine reported one of its best quarterly performances in history for Q1, benefiting from higher ore grades and improved recovery rates. According to a report by MMG, the Chinese-controlled Las Bambas copper mine in the Apurímac region produced 95,728 mt of copper in Q1 this year, up from 56,025 mt in the same period last year. The ore grade increased to 0.88% in Q1, compared to 0.54% in Q1 2024, while the copper recovery rate rose from 86.2% to 88.1%. The Ferrobamba pit and the new Chalcobamba pit maintained stable operations, with Las Bambas processing 20.2 million mt of ore in Q1, the highest quarterly level on record. The company also stated that it currently has 155 units of trucks transporting copper concentrates, up from the previous 125 units, enabling faster exports and inventory reduction. Due to the optimization of the Chalcobamba pit, Las Bambas has been operating at full capacity since Q4 2024, which will be the company's mid-term focus. The production guidance for this year is 360,000-400,000 mt, but it is expected to be revised upward following the Q1 performance. MMG stated, "Following the strong operational performance in Q1 and annualized production trending toward the upper end of the range, the company is evaluating the possibility of raising the lower end of its production forecast. If social unrest in Peru does not cause significant disruptions, Las Bambas is expected to achieve the high end of the forecast range in 2025." Las Bambas produced 322,912 mt of copper last year. The mine has faced strong community opposition in the past, particularly along the routes used to transport concentrates.

2.Raw Material Procurement Improved, Marginal Enhancement in Operating Rate of Secondary Copper Rod

April 25 News: According survey data, the operating rate of secondary copper rod this week was 22.53%, up 0.53 percentage points WoW, but down 11.17 percentage points YoY. Meanwhile, the average price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod this week was 993 yuan/mt, up 489 yuan/mt MoM. In addition, the average discount of secondary copper rod in Jiangxi against copper futures was 264 yuan/mt, down 345 yuan/mt MoM. The rebound in copper prices during the week improved the procurement situation for secondary copper rod enterprises, and production resumed after mid-week. However, due to the 2% verified collection issue and the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod remaining below the advantage line of 1,100 yuan/mt, enterprises without pending orders still did not resume production. Only a few enterprises chose to resume production due to the approaching delivery dates of orders and relatively sufficient raw material procurement, leading to a marginal improvement in the operating rate of secondary copper rod. The weekly sample finished product inventory of secondary copper rod enterprises was 2,600 mt, up 850 mt WoW. According to the secondary copper rod gross profit calculation model, the average gross profit of secondary copper rod sales this week was 323 yuan/mt, up 348 yuan/mt WoW. Additionally, the copper anode RC this week remained at 800-900 yuan/mt. In summary, the improvement in secondary copper rod gross profit and selling prices higher than copper anode indicate that secondary copper rod enterprises are more willing to produce copper anode next. After the tax-related issues of "reverse invoicing" are resolved, the operating rate of secondary copper rod is expected to continue to rebound. As the May Day holiday approaches, many secondary copper rod enterprises will maintain normal operations, and some may even need to increase furnace production to complete output tasks. The operating rate of secondary copper rod is expected to be 27.97%

3.Copper Prices Rebounded, Suppliers of Secondary Copper Raw Material Sold at High Prices

April 25: Copper prices rose by 1,400 yuan/mt WoW, with bare bright copper prices in Guangdong rebounding to 71,800-72,000 yuan/mt, up 900 yuan/mt. After a temporary easing of the US-China trade war, copper prices recovered, and suppliers of secondary copper raw materials were also willing to sell their inventory to replenish cash flow. According to weekly data from sample secondary copper rod enterprises, raw material inventory this week stood at 4,650 mt, up 500 mt WoW. Some secondary copper rod enterprises have started preparing for raw material procurement ahead of the May Day holiday, leading to a moderate increase in secondary copper raw material prices to encourage suppliers to release more inventory. Including in-transit secondary copper raw materials, the inventory of sample secondary copper rod enterprises could reach 5,650 mt, ensuring continuous production before the holiday. On the import side, traders reported that almost no US-origin secondary copper raw materials arrived in April, and European offers for secondary copper raw materials have decreased by nearly one-third this year. Import traders expect secondary copper raw material imports to drop by at least one-third this year. With a significant reduction in import sources and no notable increase in domestic dismantling volumes, raw material shortages will continue to impact the operating rates of scrap utilisation enterprises. This week, the CIF price of US #1 copper scrap was quoted at the COMEX copper May contract price minus 68-69¢/lb, while the CIF price of #2 copper scrap was quoted at the COMEX 3M copper contract price minus 73-76¢/lb. US brass scrap (65-65.5% LME, non-China destinations) and non-US Cu98.5% wire nodules CIF offers had LME coefficients of 96.5-97%, and non-US bare bright copper CIF offers had LME coefficients of 98.5-99% LME. Looking ahead to next week, stockpiling sentiment is expected to intensify before the holiday. If copper prices fail to maintain their upward trend, secondary copper rod enterprises may choose to raise prices to secure materials and ensure normal operations during the holiday.

4.Copper prices stabilized at highs, while SHFE copper destocking showed a significant increase with firm premiums.

April 25 News: Today, the spot prices #1 copper cathode against the SHFE copper 2505 contract were reported at a premium of 150-200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 175 yuan/mt, up by 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price of SMM #1 copper cathode ranged from 78,060 to 78,230 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2505 contract surged to 78,000 yuan/mt before pulling back to 77,900 yuan/mt, then rallied again and traded above 78,000 yuan/mt after 11:00 AM. The price spread between futures contracts mainly ranged from 200-240 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, suppliers maintained yesterday's quotes, with mainstream standard-quality copper at a premium of 160-180 yuan/mt, and deals for Lufang and JCC were mainly concluded at a premium of 170 yuan/mt. High-quality copper stood firm at a premium of 180-200 yuan/mt but saw limited transactions. Subsequently, a small amount of low-priced Dajiang PC was quickly traded at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, and only sources with a premium of 140-150 yuan/mt remained during the mainstream trading period. Non-registered sources were at a premium of 50-90 yuan/mt, while registered SX-EW sources remained tight. Downstream purchasing sentiment weakened during the day, as large factories had already started stockpiling for the Labour Day holiday, and small and medium-sized factories may start next week. Destocking continued yesterday, with tight supply in the Shanghai region and limited replenishment of imported copper, leading suppliers to maintain a firm stance on quotes.

5. Jincheng Mining's net profit increased by more than 50% YoY last year. The company plans to produce 80,000 mt of copper this year.

Benefiting from factors such as the increased output of copper products in the resource sector, Jincheng Mining (603979.SH) achieved a record high net profit in 2024, with a YoY increase of over 50%. The company plans to produce approximately 80,000 mt of copper metal content in 2025, a YoY increase of over 60%.

This evening, Jincheng Mining announced that in 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 9.942 billion yuan, up 34.37% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.584 billion yuan, up 53.59% YoY; and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 1.57 billion yuan, up 52.74% YoY. The proportion of overseas main business revenue to total revenue further increased to 70.78%.

On the same day, the company also announced its Q1 2025 report, with revenue of 2.811 billion yuan, up 42.49% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 422 million yuan, up 54.10% YoY.

Regarding the reasons for the 2024 performance growth, the company stated that it was mainly due to the increased production and efficiency of mine projects in the mine resource development business during the reporting period.

Specifically, the company achieved resource sales revenue of 3.209 billion yuan in 2024, a YoY increase of 412.85%, accounting for 32.28% of the company's operating revenue during the reporting period, up from 8.46% in 2023. The annual production of copper metal (equivalent) was 48,700 mt, up 238.19% YoY; and phosphate ore production was 356,500 mt, up 115.67% YoY.

Due to factors such as the acquisition of the Lubambe copper mine in Zambia in 2024, the company's copper resource equity reserves further increased to 3.42 million mt, up 185% YoY; the equity reserves of phosphate ore, gold metal, and silver metal resources showed relatively small changes compared to last year, at 21.34 million mt, 19 mt, and 179 mt, respectively.

The company also announced its 2025 business plan, in which the mine service sector: completed a total of 3.8694 million m³ of underground excavation and 44.1729 million mt of underground mining and ore supply (including ore extracted by natural caving method), with YoY changes of -7.25% and 6.46%, respectively.

Resource development sector: plans to produce 79,400 mt of copper metal, up 63.04% YoY; and 300,000 mt of phosphate ore, down 15.85% YoY.

It is worth noting that Jincheng Mining pointed out the risks of operating in overseas markets in its annual report: in recent years, the company has vigorously developed overseas business, and currently, more than 50% of mine service business revenue comes from overseas, and most of the mine resource development projects are also located overseas. As of the end of the reporting period, overseas assets amounted to 11.605 billion yuan, accounting for 68.34% of total assets. Changes in political and economic environment policies, labor protection policies, and fiscal and tax policies in overseas markets will have a certain impact on the company.